The Denver Post is reporting that it’s unlikely that the Colorado Rockies will trade Matt Holliday anytime very soon. There is a chance he could be traded in the upcoming off-season – but they made just ride out his contract and not trade him at all, letting him walk in free agency.
Chances also are that if the Rockies move him, it will be for a very nice package of prospects. After all, 28 year old MPV candidates don’t come cheap, right?
The way the rumors have been flying, everyone from the New York Yankees to the Oakland Athletics to the Cleveland Indians would be willing to make a significant pitch for Holliday. I’m not so sure I see the draw, honestly. Holliday is a solid player, but to me, he’s over rated like Coldplay (yes, I said it!).
Anyway, there probably hasn’t been a player in recent memory who’s numbers indicate they are more a product of his home field (in this case, the hitter’s mistress, Coor’s Field) then Holliday.
The difference in his splits is stark:
Career Home OPS: 1.081 (nice!)
Career Road OPS: .781 (yikes!)
That’s, like ridiculous. A split like that, 300 points of OPS, has to be one of the biggest splits in baseball right now. At Coors Field, Holliday is Barry Bonds. Everywhere else, he’s Todd Walker. Or David Dellucci. Or Orlando Hudson. Or Mike Lieberthal. You get the picture.
And we are talking over 1200 plate appearances for both home and away, so it’s not like we have a small sample size effect taking place. This is the hitter Matt Holliday is. To expect anything else would be unreasonable.
Furthermore, his home BABIP (.389!!) is 70 points higher then his road BABIP. Which brings me to my point: Holliday is custom made for Coors.
One of the popular misconceptions about Coors Field is that hitters numbers are inflated because of home runs. While that’s true, Coors is just as big a park for doubles. That’s why runs score so much there – the combination of HR and doubles.
The park is a gap hitters dream. And nothing describes Matt Holliday better then calling him a good gap hitter. Holliday has good home run power – but it’s not like we are watching him hit 50 bombs a year. He will hit you about 35 a year, which is good, no doubt.
But the last two years, his break out years, he has hit 45 and 50 doubles. The 45 put him 9th in the league in 2006 and the 50 put him first in the NL in 2007. This season, he is again on pace to be in that 45 to 50 range in doubles but is only one pace for 20-25 HR. A lot can change with “on pace” numbers as they are hardly scientific, but the trend is there.
Now, the Rockies probably aren’t going to pay up for Holliday after this season. He is due to make $13.5 million next year and would probably command a $16-20 million per season contract on the open market. Assuming he hits that open market, he will be 29 years old, a career .320-ish hitter, a 2 time All-Star. And he just missed an MVP by a .04 share in the voting. You have to believe that some team will pony up and sign him to a long, expensive contract.
If the Rockies can find a way to sign him long term, they probably should do it. He is worth way more to them then he is to any other team. However, they probably can’t get a deal done with him. And if that is their reality, they should hold him out there and trade him. It won’t be popular in Denver, but pretty much any realistic package is going to be more then Holliday is truly worth in a non-Coors environment – even if the fans don’t realize it at the time.
